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TC Watch / 熱帶氣旋 > Selected TC Review / 重要熱帶氣旋回顧 > 201522W (MUJIGAE 彩虹) [Refresh 更新]

201522W (MUJIGAE 彩虹) - Profile 檔案

(Issued on December 28, 2015)
(於 2015 年 12 月 28 日發出)

Brief profile of MUJIGAE 彩虹小檔案:

TC signals for Hong Kong & Track 香港曾經生效的熱帶氣旋警告和路徑圖:

Table 表:

Signal 信號	Date and time 日期和時間	Distance from HK 與香港的距離	Predicted movement 預測移動方向和速度	Max. 10-min winds 中心最高十分鐘平均風速
	2015/10/02 (FRI) 20:40 HKT	SSE 670 km	WNW at 22 km/h	85 km/h (45 knots, TS)
	2015/10/03 (SAT) 10:20 HKT	SSE 410 km	WNW at 22 km/h	105 km/h (55 knots, STS)
	2015/10/04 (SUN) 20:40 HKT	W 470 km	NW at 14 km/h	130 km/h (70 knots, T)
	2015/10/05 (MON) 05:20 HKT*	W 570 km	NW at 12 km/h	75 km/h (40 knots, TS)

*The Strong Monsoon Signal was issued one minute after the cancellation of the Standby Signal.
*強烈季候風信號於一號戒備信號取消後一分鐘發出。

Figure 圖:

Percentile Ranks 百分等級:

IR imagery animation 紅外線雲圖動畫:

TC track from HKWW 本站的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

TC track from HKO 天文台的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

Past HKWW Bulletins on MUJIGAE 本站有關彩虹的發佈

Please click here for bulletins on MUJIGAE. 請按這裡。

Storm Formation and Development 氣旋形成和發展

Unless otherwise stated, all times below are in Hong Kong Standard Time (UTC+8)
除非特別註明，下文時間均為香港標準時間 (協調世界時加 8 小時)

MUJIGAE is the third tropical cyclone to necessitate the issuance of tropical cyclone signals in Hong Kong, coming after a prolonged period of inactivity in the South China Sea between July and September.

An area of low pressure persisted east of the Philippines in late September. The JTWC issued a tropical cyclone formation alert in the morning of September 30 as convections gathered and spiralling characteristics became better defined. The system was upgraded to tropical depression 22W the next day, and was forecast to track WNW to NW under the steering of the subtropical ridge anchored in the Pacific. 22W was at that time close to making landfall at Luzon, and thus it was expected to remain weak before entering the South China Sea.

Meanwhile, the HKO upgraded 22W into tropical depression status at around 7 pm October 1. Before that, however, the Observatory had already hinted at the possibility of strengthening winds that weekend as numerical models were rather consistent about 22W's track forecast. 22W made landfall at Luzon just after midnight on October 2. Having previously upgraded 22W into a tropical storm, the JTWC downgraded it back into a tropical depression in its 2 am bulletin. However, the JMA upgraded it into tropical storm status at the same time and assigned the name MUJIGAE to the system. There were relatively little spread among the official agencies' forecast tracks and a landfall at northern Hainan or western Guangdong was generally expected.

Because MUJIGAE crossed Luzon through its "neck", it only took the storm 6 hours to traverse the country and, by daytime, MUJIGAE had already entered the South China Sea. MUJIGAE's northern semicircle was the hardest hit, but the storm recovered quickly due to very warm sea temperatures and ample supply of moisture from the south.

MUJIGAE continued to move WNW quickly and was within 800 km from Hong Kong near 2 pm. As the storm continued to strengthen, the HKO issued the #1 Standby Signal at 8:40 pm that night, when MUJIGAE was 670 km SSE of the territory, and said it would consider the #3 Signal the next day.

經過 7 至 9 月南海熱帶氣旋平靜期後，彩虹成為本年第三個令天文台發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的熱帶氣旋。

一個低壓區於 9 月下旬在菲律賓以東發展。隨著該低壓區對流增多及螺旋性漸轉明顯，聯合颱風警報中心於 30 日早上對其發出熱帶氣旋形成警報。該系統於翌日早上被升格為熱帶低氣壓 22W，受太平洋副熱帶高壓脊的影響，預計 22W 將向西北偏西至西北移動。22W 升格之時已差不多登陸呂宋，因此預料進入南海前發展程度有限。

另一邊廂，香港天文台於 10 月 1 日約下午 7 時將 22W 升格為熱帶低氣壓。由於數值模式對 22W 的路徑預測頗為一致，天文台在此之前已預計該周末風勢將增強。22W 於 2 日午夜過後登陸呂宋，聯合颱風警報中心於凌晨 2 時將已升格為熱帶風暴的 22W 降回熱帶低氣壓級別。與此同時，日本氣象廳則將其升格為熱帶風暴，並命名為彩虹。各官方氣象台的路徑相差無幾，均預料彩虹將登陸海南北部至廣東西部一帶。

由於彩虹沿呂宋較窄處入揳，它只用了 6 小時便完全通過菲律賓，早上已進入南海。彩虹北半圓的對流被破壞程度較嚴重，但由於南海十分溫暖，加上南面水氣供應充足，彩虹很快便重新整合。

進入南海後，彩虹繼續向西北偏西快速移動，下午 2 時左右進入香港 800 公里範圍，並繼續增強。香港天文台於當晚 8 時 40 分發出一號戒備信號，當時彩虹位於本港東南偏南約 670 公里，並表示將於明日考慮改發三號信號。

Figure 1 - Satellite image of MUJIGAE at formation
圖 1 - 彩虹形成時的衛星雲圖

Figure 2 - Steering flow chart at 8 am October 2
圖 2 - 10 月 2 日上午 8 時之駛流場圖

Figure 3 - Forecast tracks from different official agencies in the morning of October 2
圖 3 - 10 月 2 日早上各官方氣象台之預測路徑圖

Strengthening and Approaching Western Guangdong 增強及靠近廣東西部

MUJIGAE's core became more intact during the night of October 2 and strengthened into a severe tropical storm early on October 3. Poleward track component had also increased compared to the previous day. By daybreak, MUJIGAE was already within 500 km of the territory. Northeasterly winds surged within the next couple of hours and thus the HKO issued the #3 Strong Wind Signal at 10:20 am. Handling of empty cargoes was suspended at noon as winds were expected to strengthen further; some ferry services to outlying islands were also suspended in the afternoon. The HKO mentioned that higher signals by dusk was unlikely.

MUJIGAE's outermost rainbands started to affect Hong Kong near 1 pm. The associated gusts saw yet another surge in wind speed across the territory. By 3 pm, strong winds were blowing at many places including Chek Lap Kok, Cheung Chau, Green Island, Peng Chau and Tai Mei Tuk, while gales were observed at higher grounds and offshore locations such as Tate's Cairn, Ngong Ping and Waglan Island.

Due to the favourable environmental conditions in the South China Sea, MUJIGAE strengthened steadily and developed a banding eye that afternoon. The HKO upgraded MUJIGAE into a typhoon at 2 pm, before JTWC, which uses 1-minute average wind speeds, did so. The storm took a westward deflection during that afternoon. Towards the evening, the HKO indicated that higher signals were unlikely unless MUJIGAE moved more northward or intensified significantly. However it also warned the public of the possibility of gales in the southwestern part of the territory.

Locally, winds were generally the strongest during the night of October 3 and the first half of October 4. Gales were occasionally observed at Cheung Chau, one of the eight reference stations. An intense rainband approached the territory that night, prompting the HKO to issue the Amber Rainstorm Warning at 9:45 pm which lasted for more than 2 hours. Winds turned southeast during the passage of the rainband, but backed to the east afterwards.

MUJIGAE was closest to Hong Kong at about 9 pm, when it was around 320 km SSW of the territory. The HKO estimated its gale radius at 120 NM (220 km), meaning that sustained gales were still some distance away from Hong Kong. Although MUJIGAE had passed the point of closest approach, it was still intensifying and maintained a fairly constant distance from Hong Kong during the night. MUJIGAE's eye turned clear on satellite images after 9 pm and its central dense overcast thickened. Agencies gradually revised their estimated intensities upwards; the HKO upgraded it into a severe typhoon at 6 am the next day.

彩虹的中心部分於 2 日晚變得更為扎實，並於 3 日早段增強為強烈熱帶風暴，路徑比昨天更為偏北。至破曉時份，彩虹已經進入本港 500 公里範圍，而隨著東北風於其後數小時增強，天文台於早上 10 時 20 分改發三號強風信號。由於預計風勢將繼續增強，貨櫃碼頭宣佈將於中午暫停吉櫃交收，而部分往離島的渡輪服務亦於下午停航。天文台表示黃昏前改發更高信號的可能性較低。

彩虹的最外圍雨帶於下午約 1 時開始影響香港，其伴隨的陣風令本地風勢進一步上升。至下午 3 時，赤鱲角、長洲、青洲、坪洲及大美督等地已開始吹強風，而高地及離岸地區如大老山，昂坪及橫欄島更吹烈風。

由於南海大氣環境良好，彩虹穩定地增強，並於下午發展出一雲捲風眼。天文台於下午 2 時將其升格為颱風，比使用一分鐘平均風速的聯合颱風警報中心還早。風暴於當天下午往較為偏西的方向拐，天文台於傍晚表示除非彩虹顯著增強或採取較北方向移動，否則改發更高信號的機會不大，但同時警告本港西南部或會吹烈風。

本港風速普遍於 3 日晚間至 4 日中午最為強勁，八個參考站之一的長洲間中吹烈風。一條猛烈雨帶當晚抵港，天文台於 9 時 45 分發出黃色暴雨警告信號，並維持超過 2 小時後才解除。本地風向於雨帶通過時轉為東南，但其後又轉回偏東。

彩虹於當晚 9 時最接近香港，於本港西南偏南約 320 公里處掠過。天文台估計其烈風圈為 120 海浬 (220 公里)，亦即是說其相關烈風與本港仍有一段距離。雖然彩虹已通過最近處，但風暴繼續增強，與香港的距離於當晚沒有太大變化。晚上 9 時過後，彩虹的風眼在衛星雲圖上漸轉清晰，其中心密集雲區逐漸加厚，各氣象機構均上調其強度估算，天文台於翌日上午 6 時將其升格為強颱風。

Figure 4 - Satellite image of MUJIGAE developing a banding eye in the South China Sea
圖 4 - 衛星雲圖顯示彩虹正於南海建立雲捲風眼

Figures 5a and 5b - Wind field scans at 9 pm October 2 (left) and 3 (right)
圖 5a 及 5b - 10 月 2 (左) 及 3 日 (右) 晚上 9 時之風場掃描

Figure 6 - MUJIGAE's position at 11 pm October 3 and HKO's estimated wind field
圖 6 - 10 月 3 日晚上 11 時彩虹之位置及天文台的估算風場

Figure 7 - Radar image at 9 pm October 3
圖 7 - 10 月 3 日晚上 9 時的雷達圖

Landfall and Dissipation 登陸及消散

Another rainband arrived from the southeast overnight; the Amber Rainstorm Warning was issued again at 4:25 am October 4, this time lasting for just over an hour. Several stations registered a spike in wind speed (and hence the strongest winds during MUJIGAE's approach) just after 8 am, apparently due to the strong gusts associated with yet another major rainband. MUJIGAE moved more poleward after daybreak; its eye became even clearer hours before landfall and prompted the JTWC to upgrade it into a 115-knot (213 km/h), category 4-equivalent typhoon in its 2 pm bulletin. The HKO kept its intensity estimate at 155 km/h (84 knots) but adjusted upwards to 175 km/h (94 knots) in its tropical cyclone report. Meanwhile, the JMA's estimated wind speed of 70 knots (130 km/h) was much lower than that of other agencies and was believed to be well underestimated.

MUJIGAE made landfall at Zhanjiang near 2:10 pm according to Chinese authorities. It was still packing winds of up to 50 m/s (180 km/h) which made MUJIGAE the strongest October typhoon to make landfall in Guangdong since 1949. Its eye collapsed after landfall and the storm structure deteriorated rapidly as it moved even further poleward and inland. In Hong Kong, wind speeds remained rather high for most of the day but started to head south in the evening. The HKO issued the #1 Standby Signal at 8:40 pm when strong winds were confined to high grounds and offshore areas; it remained in force until 5:20 am October 5, when the HKO decided to replace it by the strong monsoon signal. Local weather remained unstable during the next few days.

With the increase in frictional forces, MUJIGAE weakened quickly into a tropical storm early on October 5. Its convections thinned out gradually and the storm degenerated into an area of low pressure in Guangxi that afternoon.

According to HKO's report, there were at least 14 cases of flooding and 30 collapsed trees in Hong Kong. A tree blown down by strong winds struck an MTR overhead power line between Tai Po Market and Fan Ling stations, disrupting the East Rail Line service during the morning of October 4. With flooding and power outages, damage caused by MUJIGAE was much more severe in western Guangdong and Guangxi. There were even tornadoes spotted in Panyu and Shunde in the afternoon of October 4.

另一條雨帶於深夜從東南方靠近香港，天文台於 4 日上午 4 時 25 分再度發出黃色暴雨警告，但這次僅維持了一個多小時。部分氣象站於早上 8 時過後風力短暫急升，並錄得彩虹吹襲本港期間的最高風速，這可能是由一條雨帶所伴隨的強陣風造成。彩虹日間路徑更為偏北，登陸前風眼進一步變得清晰，聯合颱風警報中心於下午 2 時的發佈中上調其估計風速至 115 節 (每小時 213 公里)，即達四級颱風強度。天文台維持其強度為每小時 155 公里 (84 節)，但於熱帶氣旋報告中上調至每小時 175 公里 (94 節)。另一方面，日本氣象廳的估計只為 70 節 (每小時 130 公里)，遠低於其他機構，相信該廳明顯低估彩虹的強度。

根據中國的資料，彩虹於下午約 2 時 10 分登陸湛江，當時風力仍達每秒 50 米 (每小時 180 公里)，使彩虹成為自 1949 年起 10 月登陸廣東的最強颱風。彩虹的風眼於登陸後崩潰；隨著彩虹進一步北移入內陸，其結構快速轉差。本港各處風力於 4 日日間大部分時間維持，但於傍晚開始放緩。待強風只局限於離岸及高地之時，天文台於晚上 8 時 40 分改發一號戒備信號，至翌日上午 5 時 20 分被強烈季候風信號取代。其後數天本港天氣仍然不穩定。

由於摩擦力上升，彩虹於 5 日早段快速減弱為熱帶風暴。其對流逐漸變薄，風暴於當日下午在廣西減弱為一低壓區。

天文台表示，彩虹影響本港期間政府接獲最少 14 宗水浸報告，30 棵大樹於強風中倒塌。其中一棵塌樹擊中港鐵於大埔墟至粉嶺站間之架空電纜，東鐵線服務於 4 日早上曾因此受阻。廣東西部及廣西所遭受的破壞則更為嚴重，除多處水浸及停電外，番禺及順德更於 4 日下午出現龍捲風。

Figure 8 - Colour-enhanced infrared satellite image of MUJIGAE just before landfall
圖 8 - 彩虹登陸前之色調強化紅外線衛星雲圖

Figure 9 - Radar image of MUJIGAE near landfall
圖 9 - 彩虹接近登陸時之雷達圖

Figures 10a to 10d - Wind speed time series at Cheung Chau, Chek Lap Kok, Kai Tak and Kowloon Star Ferry Pier during MUJIGAE's approach
圖 10a 至 10d - 長洲、赤鱲角、啟德及九龍天星碼頭於彩虹襲港時的風速時間序列圖

Figures 11a to 11f - Local wind distribution maps at 4-hour intervals from 4 pm October 3 to noon the next day
圖 11a 至 11f - 10 月 3 日下午 4 時至翌日正午每四小時的本港風勢分布圖

Figure 12 - Sea level pressure time series at the Hong Kong Observatory
圖 12 - 香港天文台的海平面氣壓時間序列圖

Winds Recorded at Reference Stations 參考站所錄得的風速

Charts and Figures 各項數據

Table 1: Track data from HKWW:
表一 : 香港天氣觀測站之路徑資料

Table 2: Maximum gust and hourly average wind speed recorded in Hong Kong from HKO:
表二 : 香港天文台公佈的各站最高每小時平均風力和陣風數據

Table 3: Rainfall (in millimetres) contributed by MUJIGAE from HKO (figures in brackets are based on incomplete hourly data):
表三 : 香港天文台公佈的各站雨量資料 (方括號內之數據由不完整之每小時資料擷取)

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Thu May 16 2024 22:53:41 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Mon Jul 24 2023